MLB Prop Betting Guide
Master the art of player and game props. From strikeout totals to hit counts, learn how to find value in baseball's fastest-growing betting market.
Understanding MLB Props
What Are Prop Bets?
Proposition bets (props) allow you to wager on specific outcomes within a game that don't directly relate to which team wins. In baseball, this means betting on individual player performances - strikeouts, hits, RBIs, runs scored - or game events like first inning totals.
Props have exploded in popularity because they let you bet on players and situations you understand deeply. You might not know who will win Padres vs. Dodgers, but you might know Dylan Cease typically racks up strikeouts against aggressive lineups.
Player Prop Types
Pitcher Strikeouts (O/U)
The most popular MLB prop. You're betting whether a starting pitcher will record more or less than a set number of strikeouts. Lines typically range from 4.5 to 8.5 depending on the pitcher.
Hits Allowed (O/U)
Will the pitcher allow more or less than X hits? This factors in pitcher quality, opposing lineup, and ballpark. A pitcher's K/BB ratio often correlates inversely with hits allowed.
Pitcher Outs Recorded (O/U)
How deep will the starter go? This measures innings essentially - 18 outs = 6 innings. Factor in pitch counts, bullpen strength, and game importance.
Batter Hits (O/U)
Will a specific hitter get 0.5, 1.5, or 2.5+ hits? Consider batting average, pitcher matchup history, and whether the batter is hot or cold.
Batter Total Bases (O/U)
Total bases = singles (1) + doubles (2) + triples (3) + home runs (4). Power hitters in favorable parks often have inflated total bases props.
Batter RBIs + Runs (O/U)
Combined counting stat that depends heavily on lineup protection and batting order position. Leadoff hitters get more run opportunities; cleanup hitters get more RBI chances.
Game Props
First Inning Total (O/U)
Will either team score in the first inning? Lines are typically 0.5 runs. Consider starting pitcher first-inning ERA and how lineups perform against specific pitch types early.
First Five Innings (F5) Lines
Technically a side bet, but behaves like a prop. You're betting on the game result after 5 innings, isolating starting pitchers from bullpen variance.
Team Total Runs (O/U)
How many runs will one specific team score? This lets you bet on offense without needing to predict the opposing team's performance.
Will There Be a Grand Slam? (Yes/No)
Long shot prop but can hit in high-scoring games. Look for matchups with high totals and shaky bullpens.
Strikeout Prop Strategy
The Most Beatable MLB Prop
Strikeout props are where sharp bettors find the most consistent edge in baseball. Here's why: sportsbooks set these lines based on season averages, but strikeouts are highly matchup-dependent.
Factors That Increase Strikeout Probability
- High team strikeout rate: Teams like the Angels, Rays, and White Sox consistently strike out 25%+ of the time
- Aggressive lineups: Teams that swing first-pitch and chase breaking balls inflate K totals
- Day games after night games: Tired hitters chase more pitches
- High altitude: Coors Field actually suppresses strikeouts due to breaking balls not moving as much
- Hot weather: Balls carry more, hitters swing bigger, more whiffs
Example Analysis
Dylan Cease (Blue Jays) vs. Chicago White Sox
Cease averages 8.2 K/9 on the season. White Sox strike out 27.3% of the time (3rd highest in MLB). In 4 career starts vs. CWS, Cease has averaged 9.5 strikeouts. His prop is set at 7.5.
Verdict: OVER 7.5 Ks (-120) is value.
Hit Props Strategy
Finding Value in Batter Hit Props
Hit props are trickier than strikeout props because they depend on so many variables: pitch type, defensive positioning, BABIP luck. But there are still edges to find.
When to Bet OVER on Hits
- Hitter has strong platoon advantage (LHH vs. RHP or vice versa)
- Pitcher has elevated BABIP allowed (above .310 = trouble)
- Day games when hitters see the ball better
- Small ballparks with short porches and fast turf
- Hitter is in the leadoff spot (most plate appearances)
When to Bet UNDER on Hits
- Elite pitcher with sub-.270 BABIP allowed
- Night games in pitcher-friendly parks (Citi Field, Oracle Park)
- Hitter coming off injury or extended cold streak
- Bad platoon matchup with poor historical numbers vs. that pitch type
Prop Betting Mistakes to Avoid
Common Errors That Cost Bettors Money
Mistake #1: Betting Props in a Vacuum
A pitcher's K prop doesn't exist in isolation. If the game total is 7.5, expect a low-scoring pitcher's duel with short outings and fewer strikeout opportunities. If it's 11.5, expect long at-bats and deeper counts.
Mistake #2: Ignoring Bullpen Usage
A pitcher on a short leash due to recent workload or a strong bullpen might get pulled after 5 innings regardless of performance. This caps strikeout upside.
Mistake #3: Chasing Plus-Money Parlays
Same-game parlays with 3+ props look attractive but the correlation penalty makes them -EV almost every time. Bet props individually or stick to 2-leg correlations.
Mistake #4: Overvaluing Career Matchup Stats
"This batter is 8-for-15 lifetime against this pitcher" ignores that 8 of those at-bats might be from 4 years ago when the pitcher threw 95 instead of 91.
Prop Betting Math
Understanding Juice and Implied Probability
To be profitable at -110 juice, you need to win 52.4% of your bets. At -120, you need 54.5%. This is why finding true 55%+ edges on strikeout props is so valuable - even a small edge compounds over 162 games.