ChatGPT - Complete Pick History

August 21, 2025

August 20, 2025

August 16, 2025

August 15, 2025

August 14, 2025

August 13, 2025

August 12, 2025

August 11, 2025

August 10, 2025

August 10 MLB Best Bets
Game
Pick
Line
Units
Reasoning
KC Royals @ MIN Twins
Twins ML
-135
2
Stronger offense at home, bullpen edge, favorable park and weather
KC Royals @ MIN Twins
Over 8.0 Runs (Full Game)
8.0
1
Both teams trending over recently, hitter-friendly park and weather
CIN Reds @ PIT Pirates
Reds ML
-107
2
Better starting pitching, bullpen advantage, pitcher-friendly park
CIN Reds @ PIT Pirates
Under 8.0 Runs (Full Game)
8.0
1
Pitchers limit hard contact, park suppresses runs
HOU Astros @ NYY Yankees
Yankees First 5 Innings ML
-185
2
Fried dominant starter, bullpen support
HOU Astros @ NYY Yankees
Under 9 Runs (Full Game)
9.0
1
Fried's control and umpire strike zone trends
OAK Athletics @ BAL Orioles
Orioles ML
+110
2
Better bullpen, stronger offense at home
MIA Marlins @ ATL Braves
Braves ML
-127
2
Potent offense, elite starter, strong bullpen
LAA Angels @ DET Tigers
Tigers ML
-200
2
Home advantage, bullpen and offense edge
CLE Guardians @ CHW White Sox
White Sox ML
+122
1
ATS value, bullpen edge, home crowd advantage
NY Mets @ MIL Brewers
Brewers ML
-121
2
Strong bullpen, home team, better recent form
PHI Phillies @ TEX Rangers
Phillies ML
-145
2
Ace starter vs shaky opposition, bullpen advantage
WAS Nationals @ SF Giants
Giants ML
-130
1
Home field edge, solid bullpen and lineup
COL Rockies @ ARI Diamondbacks
Diamondbacks ML
-230
2
Proven starter vs rookie, strong home offense
BOS Red Sox @ SD Padres
Padres ML
-132
1
Home pitcher advantage, stronger bullpen
        

August 9, 2025

3 Unit Plays
Astros ML (-108) — Valdez’s heavy contact management vs Gil’s inflated xwOBA (.390) and hard-hit profile. Houston bullpen is in solid form and Yankee bats have been cooler the last 10. Full-game ML lets the pen advantage play.
Guardians ML (-132) — Cantillo vs Burke is a mismatch on current form, CLE offense showing higher BB% and lower K% over last 30 days, plus big bullpen FIP edge.

2 Unit Plays
Giants ML (-157) — Whisenhunt’s changeup should neutralize some Nats RH bats, Oracle’s run suppression helps, and SF pen still above-average in leverage spots.
Cubs ML (-108) — Heat in Busch could bring some scoring, but Cards pen is shaky post-deadline. Cubs last 30-day wRC+ vs RHP is well above league average.

1 Unit Plays
Rays F5 ML (+111) — Boyle’s strikeout stuff plays early, Mariners have been hot but Logan Evans’ contact profile leaves room for hard contact. This is a small plus-money stab.
D-backs -1.5 RL (-110) — Massive starting pitching gap Blalock vs Eduardo Rodríguez, Arizona’s offense much stronger at home and COL’s road record abysmal.
        

August 8, 2025

Rank | Game | Bet | Units | Why It’s Standout
1 | Reds @ Pirates | Reds –1.5 RL (+159) | 3 | Major COVID: Reds as underdog RL value amid balanced ML and 8-run total
2 | Marlins @ Braves | Marlins ML (–113) | 2.5 | Public leans Braves, line undervalues Marlins edge
3 | Phillies @ Rangers | Under 7.5 Total (–112) | 2 | Tight pitching matchups, modest total at 7.5
4 | Mets @ Brewers | Mets ML (+104) | 1.5 | Sharp model favors Mets; close ML suggests value
5 | Reds @ Pirates | Over 8 Total (–110) | 1.5 | Simulated lean Over; forecast suggests 5–4 Pirates win
6 | Marlins @ Braves | Over 8 Total (–110) | 1 | Power-sensitive matchup with 8-run total
7 | Phillies @ Rangers | Phillies RL –1.5 (+135) | 1 | Heavy ML favorite (+55% implied win) in favorable matchup
8 | Reds @ Pirates | Reds ML (–108) | 1 | Balanced probability (~52%) and value as underdog
9 | Mets @ Brewers | Over 8 Total | 0.75 | Tight but expect scoring; implied value with high O/U
10 | Marlins @ Braves | Braves Team Total Under 4 (Speculative) | 0.5 | Contrarian if pitchers dominate early—small hedge
        

August 7, 2025

1. Reds @ Pirates — PICK: Pirates First 5 Innings -0.5 (-120)
Paul Skenes: 2.03 ERA, 2.21 xERA, 34.3% CSW, 27.2% K-BB%, 1.01 WHIP
CIN Offense: 27.2% K rate vs RHP, 85 wRC+, slumping .190 team AVG last 7
PNC Park: Slight pitcher-friendly park
Result of first matchup: Skenes shutout, 7.0 IP, 9 Ks
Why: Skenes is a monster. This is a mismatch. Singer is mediocre. Reds are striking out at an absurd clip and struggling to make solid contact. Skenes should cruise through 5 innings with a lead.
Confidence: ★★★★★ | Units: 3 Units (Best Bet)

2. White Sox @ Mariners — PICK: First 5 Innings UNDER 3.5 (-115)
Logan Gilbert: 3.21 ERA, 3.59 xERA, 1.07 WHIP, 31.1% CSW
CHW Offense vs RHP: Dead last in wRC+, ISO .113, OBP .282
SEA Offense vs RHP: Whiff-prone, also underachieving
T-Mobile Park: Roof closed = pitcher’s paradise
Why: Gilbert will dominate a historically bad lineup. Smith should survive 2–3 innings vs a whiff-heavy Mariners club. Game script screams 1–0 or 2–0 through 5.
Confidence: ★★★★☆ | Units: 2 Units

3. Marlins @ Braves — PICK: Marlins ML (-115)
Eury Pérez: 2.70 ERA, 2.91 xERA, 0.96 WHIP, elite swing-and-miss
Carrasco: 5.18 ERA, 5.88 xERA, 1.48 WHIP, washed
MIA Offense: 108 wRC+ last 30 vs RHP
ATL Offense: 90 wRC+ vs RHP, ice cold last 10 days
Why: Massive SP edge, better bullpen, hotter offense. Atlanta still getting respect on name-brand alone. Sharp $$ flipped line.
Confidence: ★★★★☆ | Units: 2 Units

4. Athletics @ Nationals — PICK: Over 9 (-110)
Both Starters: High xERA, WHIP over 1.35, HR-prone
OAK vs LHP: ISO .179, multiple HR threats
WAS vs LHP: OBP .322, low K%, aggressive contact
Why: Neither starter scares anyone. Both pens below average. Hitters' ballpark with ideal scoring conditions. Early steam from sharps. Could get messy late.
Confidence: ★★★½☆ | Units: 2 Units
        

August 6, 2025

CARD #1
# | Pick | Type | Odds | Units | Confidence
1 | Giants ML | Full Game | -150 | 3 Units | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
2 | Giants First 5 Innings -0.5 | F5 | -115 | 2 Units | ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆
3 | Giants/Pirates UNDER 8.0 | Total | -110 | 2 Units | ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆
4 | Blue Jays Team Total Over 6.5 | Alt Line | +110 | 2 Units | ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆
5 | Rangers ML vs Yankees | Moneyline | -127 | 2 Units | ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆
6 | Brewers +1.5 Run Line vs Braves | Spread | -145 | 1 Unit | ⭐⭐⭐☆☆
7 | Rockies/Blue Jays Over 12.5 | Alt Total | +125 | 1 Unit | ⭐⭐⭐☆☆
8 | Mariners First 5 Innings ML | F5 | -132 | 2 Units | ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆
9 | Mets -1.5 Run Line vs Guardians | Spread | +125 | 1 Unit | ⭐⭐⭐☆☆

CARD #2
Rank | Game | Bet | Units
1 | Reds @ Pirates | Reds –1.5 RL (+159) | 3
2 | Marlins @ Braves | Marlins ML (–113) | 2.5
3 | Phillies @ Rangers | Under 7.5 Total (–112) | 2
4 | Mets @ Brewers | Mets ML (+104) | 1.5
5 | Reds @ Pirates | Over 8 Total (–110) | 1.5
6 | Marlins @ Braves | Over 8 Total (–110) | 1
7 | Phillies @ Rangers | Phillies RL –1.5 (+135) | 1
8 | Reds @ Pirates | Reds ML (–108) | 1
9 | Mets @ Brewers | Over 8 Total | 0.75
10 | Marlins @ Braves | Braves Team Total Under 4 (Speculative) | 0.5
        

August 5, 2025

1. San Francisco Giants ML (Full Game)
Line: –158 | Units: 2 | Confidence: ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️☆ (4/5)
Rationale: Webb’s elite sinker/changeup matchup vs a PIT lineup that's last in run value vs both. Park and ump favor low scoring, SF bullpen elite. Consistent sharp backing and reverse line move.

2. Pirates Team Total UNDER 3.5 runs
Line: ~–110 | Units: 1 | Confidence: ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️☆ (4/5)
Rationale: PIT is dead last vs sinker and changeups, Webb induces grounders at a 56.7% clip, PNC Park suppresses HRs, wind blowing in.

3. Giants 1st‑5 Innings ML
Line: +108 | Units: 1 | Confidence: ⭐️⭐️⭐️☆☆ (3/5)
Rationale: Webb strong in early frames; PIT starter Burrows volatile in early innings; public market heavy on SF moneyline supports value.

4. Houston Astros ML (Full Game)
Line: –112 | Units: 1 | Confidence: ⭐️⭐️⭐️☆☆ (3/5)
Rationale: Houston favored in Miami vs Cal Quantrill (4.82 ERA, low K-rate). Lean ML only due to lower confidence.

5. Under 8.5 Runs — Astros @ Marlins
Line: –109 to –111 | Units: 1 | Confidence: ⭐️⭐️⭐️☆☆ (3/5)
Rationale: Quantrill profile (low strikeout, high walk) suppressed by aggressive AST offense; Marlins bullpen strong; parks and totals suggest tight game.
        

August 4, 2025

Detroit Tigers F5 ML vs Twins | 1.5 units
Mize at home = elite splits, Woods Richardson road ERA over 5. Twins dead bats.

Milwaukee Brewers ML @ Braves | 2 units
Priester's xERA and ground ball rate match up well. Braves lineup striking out 28% last 7 games. Fedde is cooked (5.35 ERA, 44% hard hit).

Cleveland Guardians +154 @ Mets | 1 unit
Cecconi quietly solid (3.79 ERA), Mets overvalued with Manaea (1.93 ERA but xERA 3.68). Buy low.

Toronto / Colorado OVER 11.5 | 3 units
Coors. Gordon (4.85 ERA), Lauer has reverse splits and neutralizes nothing here. Ball's flying. Wind out to center.

Cardinals / Dodgers UNDER 8.0 | 2 units
Glasnow + Gray with strong CSW%. LAD last 10 games: 0-9-1 to the Over. Sharps hit this early.

Red Sox F5 ML vs Royals | 1.5 units
Bello has looked better recently, Royals regress hard vs RHP on the road. Falter due for blowup (4.11 xFIP).

Phillies TT Over 5.0 vs Orioles | 1 unit
Povich has a 5.46 ERA, but worse FIP/xERA. Philly hitting lefties (.288 AVG, .506 SLG vs LHP last 30 days).

Yankees / Rangers UNDER 8.0 | 1 unit
Fried vs Corbin LHP duel. Two offenses that slow down vs lefties, both pitchers with elite groundball %.
        

August 3, 2025

Units scale: 1U = Lean, 2U = Strong, 3U = Best Bet

1. Brewers -1.5 (+105) @ Nationals | 3U — Best bet of the day
Pitching Edge: Misiorowski – 2.73 ERA, 12.6 K/9, elite vertical movement, top 10% in CSW%. Nats: 28th in ISO vs RHP, .663 OPS L10. Bullpen Edge: MIL bullpen last 30 days – 2.98 ERA, 0.99 WHIP.

2. Dodgers -1.5 (-120) @ Rays | 3U
Yamamoto: 2.64 ERA, 3.01 xERA, 31.4% CSW%, 5.3% BB. Boyle: 4.50 ERA, high walk rate (13%), vulnerable to power. LAD offense: 2nd in MLB wRC+ vs RHP. Tampa: 2–8 L10, can’t hit elite velo.

3. Astros ML (-108) @ Red Sox | 2U
Valdez: 2.62 ERA, 57% GB rate, 3.03 FIP. Boston: 26th in wRC+ vs LHP. Houston: Top 6 in OPS vs RHP, better pen.

4. Mets F5 -0.5 (-115) vs Giants | 2U
Whisenhunt: 7.20 ERA, 1.78 WHIP, 2.3 HR/9. Montas: Not great, but passable; at home: 3.91 ERA. Mets vs LHP: .804 OPS.

5. Pirates vs Rockies OVER 11.5 (-110) | 2U
Blalock: 7.20 ERA, terrible metrics (xERA 6.78, Barrel% 11%). Keller: Good, but Coors effect huge. Bullpens: Both bottom 6 in ERA.

6. Braves/Reds First 5 UNDER 4.5 (-110) | 2U
Cox (ATL): Top AAA prospect, deceptive stuff. Burns (CIN): 6.33 ERA but backed by CIN Under streak: 0-7-2 O/U last 9.

7. Cubs Team Total Over 4.5 (-110) vs Orioles | 1.5U
B. Young (BAL): 6.75 ERA, 1.67 WHIP. Rea: keeps Cubs in game. Cubs: 5.81 runs/game at home L10.

8. Rangers ML (-110) @ Mariners | 1.5U
deGrom: 2.56 ERA, 35% K%, .211 wOBA against. Evans (SEA): 4.22 ERA, 1.41 WHIP. Mariners: 2-8 O/U last 10 — bad offense.

9. Orioles/Cubs Over 8.5 (-110) | 1U
Both starters shaky, wind 8–10 MPH out to center.

10. White Sox @ Angels OVER 9.0 (-110) | 1U
Kochanowicz: MLB debut. Burke: 4.45 ERA, bad second time through. Both pens: Bottom 10 in WHIP.
        

August 2, 2025

1. Milwaukee Brewers ML (-177) — 3 Units
Sharp pitching edge and solid bullpen, plus Nationals struggling at home.
2. Tampa Bay Rays ML (+126) — 2 Units
Blake Snell dominates, Rays strong at home, good value on underdog.
3. Chicago Cubs ML (-197) — 2 Units
Boyd vs Sugano pitching mismatch, Cubs strong home form.
4. Atlanta Braves ML (-121) — 2 Units
Strider’s solid vs weak Reds home team.
5. Philadelphia Phillies ML (-104) — 1.5 Units
Wheeler strong, Phillies home
        

July 31, 2025

(No units listed, assumed 1 per pick)
1. Tampa Bay Rays Moneyline
2. Over 9.5 Runs (ATL @ CIN)
3. Under 7.5 Runs (TEX @ SEA)
        

July 30, 2025

1. Toronto Blue Jays Moneyline (+101) | 3 Units
2. Game Total UNDER 7.5 Runs (CHC @ MIL) | -115 | 2.5 Units
3. Philadelphia Phillies Moneyline (-148) @ CHI White Sox | 2 Units
4. San Francisco Giants -1.5 Run Line (+100) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates | 1.5 Units
5. Los Angeles Dodgers Moneyline (-172) @ Cincinnati Reds | 1 Unit
        

July 29, 2025

1. Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 RL (-115) — 3 Units
2. New York Yankees -1.5 RL (-110) — 2 Units
3. Toronto Blue Jays ML (-115) (vs. BAL, Game 2) — 2 Units
4. San Francisco Giants ML (-150) — 2 Units
5. LAD @ CIN F5 UNDER 4.5 runs (-110) — 2 Units
6. Chicago White Sox Team Total UNDER 3.5 runs (-130) — 2 Units
7. LAD Team Total OVER 4.5 runs (-120) — 1 Unit
8. SEA @ OAK Full Game OVER 10.5 runs (-105) — 1 Unit