MLB Prop Betting: Your Complete Guide to Player Props

Prop bets are where baseball betting gets fun. Instead of picking winners, you're betting on individual performances - will a pitcher strike out 7 batters? Will a hitter get 2 hits? Will someone crush a home run?

The great thing about props is that you can have an opinion on a specific player even when you have no idea who's going to win the game. You might think Gerrit Cole will dominate tonight regardless of whether the Yankees win. That's a prop opportunity.

But here's the thing - props can also be traps if you don't know what you're doing. The juice is often higher than on game bets, and the books are getting smarter at setting these lines. This guide will show you how to find real value.

Pitcher Strikeout Props

This is the most popular prop bet in baseball, and for good reason. Strikeouts are one of the most predictable stats in the game. Good pitchers rack them up. Bad opponents strike out more. It's pretty straightforward.

What to Look For

• Opponent strikeout rate: Some lineups just swing and miss a lot. The White Sox, Rockies, and Athletics typically lead the league in team strikeouts. When an ace faces them, the over is live.
• Pitcher's recent form: Check the last 3-5 starts. Is he hitting his spots? Is the velocity there? A pitcher trending up might be undervalued.
• Expected innings: A guy who gets pulled after 5 innings has fewer chances to rack up Ks. Check if there are bullpen concerns or pitch count limits.
• Umpire strike zone: A tight-zone ump means more walks, fewer strikeouts. Check the home plate assignment.

Hits Props

Hits are trickier than strikeouts because there's more variance involved. A guy can hit three line drives right at fielders and go 0-for-4. Another guy can bloop three singles and look like a hero. That's baseball.

What to Look For

• Batter vs pitcher history: Some hitters just see certain pitchers well. 10+ at-bats with a .350+ average? That's meaningful.
• Handedness matchup: Most hitters have a platoon split. Check if a lefty masher is facing a right-handed pitcher he can attack.
• Ballpark: Coors Field inflates hit totals. Petco Park suppresses them. Factor in where they're playing.
• Lineup position: A guy batting second will get more at-bats than a guy batting eighth. More chances = more opportunities for hits.

Home Run Props

Home run props are essentially lottery tickets with better odds. Most players hit a home run in maybe 4-5% of their at-bats. That means the under is almost always the "right" play mathematically - but the payouts on the over can be juicy.

When HR Overs Make Sense

• Power hitter vs fly ball pitcher: Some pitchers give up a ton of fly balls. When they face elite power hitters, balls leave the yard.
• Hitter-friendly parks: Great American Ballpark, Coors Field, Yankee Stadium's short porch - these places see homers.
• Weather conditions: Hot, humid air with wind blowing out? Balls carry. Cold, dry air with wind blowing in? They die at the track.
• Plus money value: If you're getting +250 on a guy who hits homers in 5% of games, that's bad value. If you're getting +250 on a guy who hits homers 10% of games vs this type of pitcher? Now we're talking.

Total Bases Props

Total bases combines everything - singles (1), doubles (2), triples (3), and homers (4). It's a nice middle ground between the volatility of home run props and the grind of hits props.

Total bases props favor power hitters because one swing can get you there. A guy like Judge or Ohtani can go 1-for-4 with a home run and hit the over 1.5 easily. A contact hitter needs multiple hits to get there.

Pitcher Outs Recorded

This prop is about how deep into the game a starter goes. It's betting on workload rather than performance.

Factors That Matter

• Pitch count tendencies: Some managers yank guys at 90 pitches. Others let workhorses throw 110. Know the team's philosophy.
• Bullpen state: If the pen is gassed, starters get longer leashes. If the pen is fresh, they get pulled quicker.
• Game situation: A guy cruising with a 6-0 lead might get pulled early to rest. A guy in a tight game might pitch deeper.
• Opponent lineup: A tough lineup that grinds at-bats will drive up pitch counts and shorten starts.

Building a Props Strategy

Here's how to approach props without going broke:

1. Specialize: You can't know everything about every prop. Pick one or two types (strikeouts, for example) and really learn them.
2. Track your bets: Keep a spreadsheet. After a month, you'll see if you're actually finding edges or just gambling.
3. Shop lines: Prop lines vary more between books than game lines. The difference between Over 6.5 K's and Over 7.5 K's is massive.
4. Manage bankroll: Props are volatile. Keep your bet sizes smaller than you would on game bets - maybe 0.5% to 1% of your bankroll.
5. Avoid parlaying props: I know it's tempting to string together five strikeout overs for a big payout. The math rarely works. Variance compounds.

Last Updated: January 14, 2026