Gemini - Complete Pick History

August 21, 2025

August 20, 2025

August 16, 2025

August 15, 2025

August 14, 2025

August 13, 2025

August 12, 2025

August 11, 2025

August 10, 2025

August 9, 2025

Top Picks for Outright Wins
These teams present the most significant mismatches on paper and have a high probability of winning.
Houston Astros (-117) at New York Yankees
This is the strongest pick of the day. The pitching matchup is a dramatic mismatch between the Astros' reliable ace, Framber Valdez (2.83 ERA), and the Yankees' struggling rookie, Luis Gil, who holds an alarming 15.00 ERA. Valdez's groundball style is a perfect antidote to Yankee Stadium's short porch. The disciplined, high-contact Astros offense is a nightmare matchup for a pitcher like Gil who has severe control issues. Houston's superior starting pitching and lineup give them a decisive edge.
San Francisco Giants (-157) vs. Washington Nationals
The Giants are a solid pick at home against the struggling Nationals. San Francisco is a good home team, and they face a Washington squad with one of the worst road records in the league. The pitching matchup favors the Giants, with their lefty Carson Whisenhunt facing a weak Nationals lineup. The game being played in the pitcher-friendly Oracle Park, with the wind expected to blow in, further suppresses Washington's already anemic offense, making it difficult for them to score.
Cleveland Guardians (-132) at Chicago White Sox
The Guardians are playing excellent baseball, winning eight of their last ten games, while the White Sox are one of the worst teams in the league. Cleveland has a significant advantage in starting pitching, bullpen, and offense. The pitching matchup, even with two pitchers with higher ERAs, still favors Cleveland's Joey Cantillo against a White Sox team that often struggles against left-handed pitching.
Team Totals to Consider
These selections are based on a combination of offensive prowess, pitching matchups, and park factors.
Houston Astros Team Total Over
Given Luis Gil's astronomical ERA and severe control problems, the potent and patient Astros lineup is in a prime position to score runs in bunches. Playing in the hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium will only help their cause. Expect the Astros to capitalize on the favorable matchup and exceed their team total.
Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks - Game Total Over 9.5
This game features a clash between two struggling starting pitchers, Braden Blalock (7.20 ERA) for the Rockies and Eduardo Rodriguez (5.67 ERA) for the Diamondbacks. The Rockies' pitching staff is one of the worst in the league, and they will be playing in the extreme heat of Arizona, even with the roof at Chase Field likely closed. Both pitchers are prone to giving up runs, and this has all the makings of a high-scoring affair where both teams contribute to pushing the total over.
Toronto Blue Jays at Los Angeles Dodgers - Game Total Over
This matchup features two of the most explosive offenses in baseball. While the starting pitchers, Chris Bassitt and Blake Snell, are talented, both can be vulnerable. Bassitt is prone to giving up home runs, and Snell can struggle with his command, leading to walks and high pitch counts. In the warm, clear conditions of Dodger Stadium, expect both lineups to put up runs in what should be a back-and-forth offensive showcase.
        

August 8, 2025

Tier 1: Highest Confidence (3 Units)
Detroit Tigers -1.5 Run Line vs. LA Angels (3 Units)
The Mismatch: This is the most significant mismatch on the entire slate. You have an elite, Cy Young-caliber pitcher in Tarik Skubal (2.19 ERA, 2.15 SIERA) at home, where he is dominant, against a struggling Kyle Hendricks (4.62 ERA, 4.90 FIP) who relies on a defense that is one of the worst in baseball (-20 DRS).
Advanced Data: The Tigers' offense has been good (109 wRC+ last 30 days) while the Angels' offense is poor (85 wRC+) and historically inept against left-handed pitching. Detroit also holds a massive advantage in the bullpen and on defense.
The Bet: The moneyline is unplayable at -328. The value is in the run line. Detroit has every conceivable advantage and should win this game comfortably.
Cleveland Guardians -1.5 Run Line vs. Chicago White Sox (3 Units)
Polar Opposites: The Guardians are surging (7-3 last 10) with a red-hot offense (118 wRC+ last 30 days) and the best defense in baseball (+40 DRS). The White Sox are in a freefall, featuring a terrible offense (78 wRC+), a porous bullpen, and the league's worst defense (-25 DRS).
Pitching Edge: While Tanner Bibee's ERA is average, his underlying metrics are better, and he's backed by an elite defense. Aaron Civale's FIP (4.45) suggests he's been fortunate, and he's now facing a hot offense with no defensive support.
The Bet: The Guardians are superior in every single facet of the game. The favorable hitting wind in Chicago only helps the better offense. Like the Tigers, the value is on the run line for the heavy favorite.
Tier 2: Strong Confidence (2 Units)
3. Houston Astros First 5 Innings Moneyline @ NY Yankees (2 Units)
Starting Pitching Gulf: This is a classic "F5" (First 5 Innings) bet based on a massive starting pitching advantage. Hunter Brown is legitimately elite (2.47 ERA, 2.80 SIERA). The Yankees' starter, C. Schlittler, has been objectively bad (4.74 ERA, 5.10 xERA) with major command issues.
The Bet: We isolate the starting pitching mismatch and take the Astros to have the lead after five innings.
Milwaukee Brewers Moneyline vs. NY Mets (2 Units)
Two Teams, Opposite Directions: The Brewers are the hottest team in baseball (9-1 last 10), while the Mets are ice cold (2-8 last 10). This game features a spectacular pitching matchup, but the Brewers are simply the far better and more confident team right now.
Home Field & Bullpen: Milwaukee is a fortress at home (36-20), and their bullpen has been lights out during this stretch. The Mets' bullpen, conversely, has been a source of their recent struggles.
The Bet: Despite the elite pitching matchup, the price on the Brewers is very reasonable. We're betting on the better team to continue its run at home.
Pittsburgh Pirates Moneyline vs. Cincinnati Reds (2 Units)
Home/Road Splits: This is a classic case of fading a team's weaknesses. The Pirates are a strong home team (33-27), while the Reds struggle on the road (27-30).
Pitching & Defense: While Mitch Keller has had issues with the Reds in the past, he's a solid veteran facing a high-variance rookie in Chase Burns who has a 6.11 ERA. The Pirates have a significant defensive advantage (+10 DRS vs. -15 DRS).
The Bet: The Pirates' offense is in better form, they are at home, have the defensive edge, and face a struggling rookie.
Tier 3: Good Confidence (1 Unit)
6. Toronto Blue Jays @ LA Dodgers - Over 9.0 Runs (1 Unit)
Hitting Environment: Two of the most potent offenses in baseball playing in hot weather (low 90s) that will help the ball carry.
Pitching Questions: Scherzer (4.39 ERA) and Kershaw (3.32 ERA) are legends, but are not in their prime and are vulnerable.
Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins - Over 8.5 Runs (1 Unit)
Weather and Trends: The wind is blowing out to center at a steady clip. Both teams have been on a strong "over" trend (KC 7-3 O/U, MIN 7-2-1 O/U).
Philadelphia Phillies @ Texas Rangers - First 5 Innings Under 4.0 Runs (1 Unit)
Pitchers' Duel: Cristopher Sánchez (2.41 ERA, 2.90 SIERA) and Merrill Kelly (3.22 ERA, 3.40 FIP) are both having excellent seasons.
Boston Red Sox @ San Diego Padres - Full Game Over 8.0 Runs (1 Unit)
Hot Offenses: Both teams are scorching hot, each going 8-2 in their last 10 games. Buehler's struggles (5.74 ERA) could lead to an early crooked number for Boston.
Chicago Cubs Moneyline @ St. Louis Cardinals (1 Unit)
Massive Pitching Mismatch: Purely a fade of a struggling pitcher. The Cubs' Matthew Boyd (2.35 ERA) vs. the Cardinals' Michael McGreevy (6.00 ERA).
        

August 7, 2025

Athletics Moneyline (-129) @ Nationals | 2 Units
The Athletics are coming in hot, especially on offense (16 runs last outing). Oakland's offense ranks favorably (13th runs, 6th HR). They face a struggling Washington pitching staff that holds the 29th-ranked ERA in baseball at 5.43.
Mariners Moneyline @ White Sox | 3 Units
The Mariners have had the White Sox's number (12-4 record last 3 seasons). Seattle is in good form (7 of last 9). Logan Gilbert has a stellar career record against the White Sox (2-0, 1.80 ERA).
Pirates Moneyline (-181) vs Reds | 2 Units
The clear advantage lies with the Pirates' phenom, Paul Skenes. In his career, Skenes has been utterly dominant against the Reds (3-0, 0.53 ERA, 25 K in 3 starts).
Braves Moneyline (+105) vs Marlins | 1 Unit
The Atlanta Braves have historically dominated the Miami Marlins, winning 20 of their last 31 meetings. The value on the home underdog with this history is too good to pass up.
        

August 6, 2025

Toronto Blue Jays @ Colorado Rockies - Over 12.0 Runs (-110) | 3 Units
Direct play on the Coors Field effect. Toronto's powerful lineup (120 wRC+ vs. LHP) faces Kyle Freeland (5.26 FIP). Gausman's splitter is less effective at high altitude.
Boston Red Sox ML (-142) vs. Kansas City Royals | 3 Units
Riding the hot hand. The Red Sox are on a 9-1 run, best offense in baseball over the last two weeks (135 wRC+), and are 39-21 at home.
San Francisco Giants ML (-150) @ Pittsburgh Pirates | 2 Units
Pitching matchup is dominant. Robbie Ray is in excellent form (sub-2.50 ERA last 5 starts) against a Pirates offense that is poor against left-handed pitching (82 wRC+).
Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 RL (-125) vs. St. Louis Cardinals | 2 Units
Massive pitching mismatch. Shohei Ohtani (2.40 ERA) at home vs. Matthew Liberatore (13.50 career ERA vs Dodgers). Dodgers should win comfortably.
Milwaukee Brewers ML (+123) @ Atlanta Braves | 2 Units
Value play. Backing a hot team (7-3 L10, 125 wRC+) against a cold one (3-7 L10, 80 wRC+). Braves ace Spencer Strider has looked human lately.
Chicago White Sox TT Under 2.5 (+100) | 2 Units
Targeting an elite pitcher (George Kirby) in a pitcher-friendly park against a weak road team (18-38 record).
Cincinnati Reds F5 ML (+115) @ Chicago Cubs | 1 Unit
Focus on starting pitching matchup. Andrew Abbott has dominated the Cubs in his career (3-0, 2.30 ERA). Getting plus money for 5 innings is solid value.
Athletics ML (-117) @ Washington Nationals | 1 Unit
Simple momentum play. Athletics are hot (7-3 L10) facing a Nationals team that is not (3-7 L10).
        

August 5, 2025

Texas Rangers ML (-140) vs. New York Yankees | 3 Units | ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️
Justification: Strongest play on the board. Nathan Eovaldi is pitching at a Cy Young level. Fade the popular Yankees against a true ace at home.
Boston Red Sox -1.5 (-105) vs. Kansas City Royals | 2 Units | ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️☆
Justification: Garrett Crochet is a nightmare matchup for the Royals (worst vs. LHP). Red Sox have a significant home-field advantage.
San Francisco Giants @ Pittsburgh Pirates - Under 7.5 Runs (-110) | 2 Units | ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️☆
Justification: Elite groundball pitcher (Logan Webb) in a pitcher-friendly park (PNC) against two bottom-tier offenses.
Seattle Mariners -1.5 (-110) vs. Chicago White Sox | 2 Units | ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️☆
Justification: Mismatch of epic proportions. White Sox have an abysmal road record and offense, facing a good pitcher (Bryan Woo) in a park that suppresses offense.
Toronto Blue Jays - Team Total Over 6.5 Runs (-115) at Colorado Rockies | 1 Unit | ⭐️⭐️⭐️☆☆
Justification: Isolating the Blue Jays' offense against an inexperienced pitcher in the most hitter-friendly environment imaginable.
Milwaukee Brewers ML (-135) at Atlanta Braves | 1 Unit | ⭐️⭐️⭐️☆☆
Justification: Brewers' excellent road record and pitching matchup (Peralta vs regression-candidate Wentz) makes them a solid favorite against a Braves team struggling at home.
        

August 4, 2025

Milwaukee Brewers ML (-132) vs. Atlanta Braves | 3 Units (Max Bet)
The Cornerstone: Perfect storm of value. Better, hotter team with a massive starting pitching advantage against a struggling, overvalued opponent.
Toronto Blue Jays / Colorado Rockies OVER 11.5 (-115) | 2 Units
The High-Probability Target: Logical environmental play. Vulnerable pitchers, hot offenses, hitter's umpire, and the extreme altitude of Coors Field.
Toronto Blue Jays Team Total OVER 6.5 (-120) | 2 Units
Correlated play to directly attack the biggest mismatch: Toronto's elite bats against a weak Rockies pitching staff.
Miami Marlins ML (-112) vs. Houston Astros | 2 Units
The Momentum Play: Fundamental bet on current form. Red-hot team (8-2 L10) at home against a team in a catastrophic freefall (2-8 L10) at a near-pick'em price.
St. Louis Cardinals / LA Dodgers F5 UNDER 4.5 (-115) | 2 Units
The Sharp Angle: Direct play on a powerful statistical trend. Fades the public perception and trusts the data: Tyler Glasnow's dominance and the Dodgers' incredible 9-1 run to the Under in the F5.
        

August 3, 2025

Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 RL (+105) @ Washington Nationals | 3 Units (Max Confidence)
The Deep Dive: Most significant mismatch on the slate. Brewers dominate on the road (37-17 ATS) vs. a Nationals team that is 21-33 at home. Clear pitching edge (Misiorowski vs. Lord).
New York Yankees @ Miami Marlins — Under 8.0 Total Runs (-110) | 3 Units (Max Confidence)
The Deep Dive: Anchored by Luis Gil's phenomenal (if unsustainable) 0.00 ERA. Both teams trending heavily towards the under (NYY 6-3-1, MIA 2-7-1).
Kansas City Royals ML (+121) @ Toronto Blue Jays | 2 Units (High Confidence)
The Deep Dive: Classic value play on a starting pitching mismatch. Royals send Seth Lugo (3.05 ERA) vs. the inconsistent Chris Bassitt (4.28 ERA).
Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 RL (-120) @ Tampa Bay Rays | 2 Units (High Confidence)
The Deep Dive: Play on overwhelming talent and current form. Massive pitching advantage with Yamamoto (2.64 ERA) vs. Boyle (4.50 ERA). Rays are in a complete freefall (2-8 L10).
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Colorado Rockies — F5 Over 6.5 Runs (-115) | 1 Unit (Standard Confidence)
The Deep Dive: Coors Field with two vulnerable pitchers (Keller vs. Blalock 7.20 ERA). Isolates the starting pitchers before bullpens get involved.
        

August 2, 2025

Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 RL (-135) @ Colorado Rockies | 3 Units
The Wager: Generational ace Paul Skenes (1.83 ERA, 2.15 xFIP) vs. one of the worst starters in baseball, Austin Gomber (6.39 ERA, 5.78 xFIP), at Coors Field.
Tampa Bay Rays ML (+115) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | 3 Units
The Wager: Fading regression candidate Blake Snell (2.00 ERA vs 4.29 xFIP) with the more reliable Drew Rasmussen (2.97 ERA vs 3.10 xFIP).
Houston Astros @ Boston Red Sox - Over 9.5 Runs (-110) | 2 Units
The Wager: Two struggling veteran pitchers (Gordon & Buehler) with high xFIPs, two potent offenses, in an elite hitter's park (Fenway).
Detroit Tigers @ Philadelphia Phillies - F5 Under 3.5 Runs (-120) | 2 Units
The Wager: Premier pitching duel (Skubal vs. Wheeler). Isolates the period of peak dominance for two of the best pitchers in baseball.
Chicago Cubs -1.5 RL (+110) vs. Baltimore Orioles | 2 Units
The Wager: Strong starting pitcher (Matthew Boyd 2.49 ERA) and potent home offense against a hittable starter (Sugano 4.38 ERA) with wind blowing out at Wrigley.
        

July 31, 2025

Tampa Bay Rays Moneyline (-103)
Final Integrated Conclusion: Situational factors overwhelmingly favor Tampa Bay. The wind blowing out at Yankee Stadium, Stroman's documented, drastic struggles in day games, and a tired Yankees bullpen create a nightmare scenario for New York.
Over 9.5 Runs (ATL @ CIN)
Final Integrated Conclusion: Every single environmental and situational factor points towards a high-scoring game. A hitter's umpire, in a premier hitter's park, with hitter-friendly weather, featuring an elite offense due for an explosion against a regression-candidate pitcher they are familiar with.
Under 7.5 Runs (TEX @ SEA)
Final Integrated Conclusion: A closed roof in a top-tier pitcher's park is a massive factor. George Kirby's documented success against this Rangers team, combined with Seattle's ice-cold offense, creates the ideal script for a low-scoring pitcher's duel.
        

July 30, 2025

Toronto Blue Jays Moneyline (+101) | 3 Units (Maximum Confidence)
Final Justification: Massive red flag that "sharp" money is on Toronto. 68% of the public on Baltimore, yet the line is a near pick-'em. We are betting on the pitching data (Kremer 4.75 xFIP) and the market indicators.
Game Total UNDER 7.5 Runs (CHC @ MIL) | -115 | 2.5 Units
Final Justification: Elite, data-driven play. Features two of the NL's best pitchers (Imanaga 2.85 FIP, Peralta 3.10 FIP) backed by two top-5 bullpens.
Philadelphia Phillies Moneyline (-148) @ CHI White Sox | 2 Units
Final Justification: Betting against Adrian Houser, whose 2.12 ERA is a statistical fantasy contradicted by his abysmal 5.08 SIERA.
San Francisco Giants -1.5 Run Line (+100) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates | 1.5 Units
Final Justification: Exceptional value at an even-money price. Logan Webb is a dominant ace at home in a pitcher's park against a terrible road team.
Los Angeles Dodgers Moneyline (-172) @ Cincinnati Reds | 1 Unit
Final Justification: Straightforward bet on talent. A "superiority tax" for a team with overwhelming advantages in every key area (Ohtani, #1 offense, rested bullpen).
        

July 29, 2025

Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 RL (-115) — 3 Units
Synthesis & Conclusion: Cascading mismatches. An unlucky, elite pitcher (Luzardo, 3.65 FIP) faces a powerless, K-prone offense. A lucky, bottom-tier pitcher (Cannon, 5.31 FIP) faces a patient, top-tier offense. A top-12 bullpen faces a bottom-3 bullpen.
New York Yankees -1.5 RL (-110) — 2 Units
Synthesis & Conclusion: Clash of profiles heavily favors New York. The Yankees' patient offense is the ideal counter to a pitcher whose primary weakness is walks (Joe Boyle). Max Fried's groundball style is the perfect antidote to the Rays' lineup.
Toronto Blue Jays ML (-115) (vs. BAL, Game 2) — 2 Units
Synthesis & Conclusion: Classic "sell high" opportunity. The market is respecting Eric Lauer's 3.24 ERA, while the underlying numbers (4.30 FIP) scream that a blow-up is imminent against a top-5 offense vs. LHP.
San Francisco Giants ML (-150) — 2 Units
Synthesis & Conclusion: Every single data point—advanced pitcher metrics (Falter regression candidate), offensive splits, bullpen quality, park factors—points to a San Francisco victory.
LAD @ CIN F5 UNDER 4.5 runs (-110) — 2 Units
Conclusion: The sharpest way to play this game is to invest in the elite starting pitching duel (Glasnow & Lodolo) while fading the questionable bullpens.
Chicago White Sox Team Total UNDER 3.5 runs (-130) — 2 Units
Conclusion: A team total bet is a perfect way to isolate one half of a massive mismatch: the anemic White Sox offense vs. the elite Phillies pitching.
LAD Team Total OVER 4.5 runs (-120) — 1 Unit
Conclusion: A bet that the elite Dodgers offense will eventually get to the Reds' league-worst bullpen.
SEA @ OAK Full Game OVER 10.5 runs (-105) — 1 Unit
Conclusion: When all four units (both starters, both bullpens) project as below-average to poor, the correct approach is to embrace the volatility and bet the over.