MLB Betting for Beginners: Your Complete First 30 Days Guide

The Three Core MLB Bet Types

Baseball betting is actually simpler than football or basketball. There are three main bet types you need to understand: the moneyline, the run line, and the total. Master these, and you've got the foundation.

1The Moneyline (Picking the Winner)

This is the simplest bet in sports: pick who wins the game. No point spreads, no complications. The catch is that favorites cost more, and underdogs pay more.

Here's how to read it:

• Dodgers -150: You need to bet $150 to win $100 profit (plus your $150 back). They're the favorite.
• Padres +130: A $100 bet wins you $130 profit (plus your $100 back). They're the underdog.

2The Run Line (Baseball's Spread)

The run line is almost always set at 1.5 runs. The favorite needs to win by 2 or more. The underdog can lose by 1 and you still win.

Breaking it down:

• Yankees -1.5 (+120): The Yankees must win by 2+ runs. Because this is harder, you get plus money.
• Red Sox +1.5 (-140): The Red Sox can lose by 1 run and you win. Because this is easier, you pay juice.

Here's something important: taking the favorite on the run line at plus money can sometimes be better than taking them on the moneyline at minus money - if you think they'll win big. It's a balancing act.

3The Total (Over/Under)

You're betting on the combined score of both teams. Will the total runs be over or under the posted number?

If the final score is Yankees 5, Red Sox 4 (total: 9), the over wins. If it's Yankees 4, Red Sox 3 (total: 7), the under wins.

Baseball totals typically range from 6.5 to 11.5 depending on the pitching matchup, ballpark, and weather. Coors Field games often have totals around 11. A game with two aces might be 6.5.

Understanding the Vig (Juice)

Notice how both sides of the total are -110? That's the sportsbook's commission, called "vig" or "juice." You're risking $110 to win $100. The sportsbook makes money no matter who wins.

At -110 on both sides, you need to win about 52.4% of your bets to break even. That extra 2.4% is what makes sports betting hard. You don't just need to be right - you need to be right more often than the juice takes away.

Your First 30 Days: A Realistic Plan

Week 1: Learn Without Betting Real Money

• Watch games and practice reading lines
• Track picks on paper to see how you'd do
• Learn what factors matter (pitching, ballpark, weather)
• Understand that opening lines move as money comes in

Week 2: Start Small

• Bet 1-2% of your bankroll per game maximum
• Stick to moneylines at first - they're simplest
• Track every bet you make in a spreadsheet
• Don't chase losses with bigger bets

Week 3-4: Refine Your Approach

• Identify what types of bets you're winning
• Look at your betting history objectively
• Start learning about line movement
• Consider totals now that you understand pitching matchups

Bankroll Management: The Most Important Skill

This isn't exciting, but it's the difference between staying in the game and going broke. Here's a simple framework:

Yes, those numbers seem small. That's the point. Baseball has 2,430 regular season games per year. You don't need to swing for the fences on any single game. Survival is the first goal. Growth comes from consistent, disciplined betting over time.

What Moves Baseball Lines

Understanding why lines change helps you find value:

• Starting pitching: The single biggest factor. An ace vs a replacement-level starter can swing a line 40+ cents.
• Lineup changes: If a team's best hitter is resting, the line adjusts.
• Weather: Wind blowing out at Wrigley? Totals go up. Rain expected? Games might postpone.
• Sharp money: Professional bettors moving lines by betting large amounts.
• Public money: Casual bettors loading up on popular teams like the Yankees or Dodgers.

Common Beginner Mistakes to Avoid

1. Betting your favorite team: Emotional attachment clouds judgment. Be honest with yourself.
2. Chasing losses: Lost your first bet? Don't double the next one. Stick to your unit size.
3. Betting every game: More bets doesn't mean more wins. Be selective.
4. Ignoring the juice: -110 on both sides means you need 52.4% to break even, not 50%.
5. No tracking: If you're not recording your bets, you can't improve. Data matters.

Next Steps

You've got the basics. Now it's about practice and refinement. Here's where to go from here:

• Prop Betting Guide - Learn strikeout totals, hit props, and more
• Futures Betting - World Series odds, win totals, awards
• Our AI Methodology - How our models analyze games
• AI Picks - See how Claude, ChatGPT, and Gemini handicap

Last Updated: January 14, 2026