Bankroll Management: The Skill That Actually Makes You Money

Here's a truth that might sting a little: your handicapping skill means absolutely nothing if you can't manage your money. I've watched brilliant bettors go broke because they couldn't control their bet sizing. I've watched average handicappers build serious bankrolls because they understood the math of survival.

This isn't the sexy part of sports betting. Nobody brags about their unit sizing at the bar. But I promise you - bankroll management is the single most important skill separating recreational bettors who lose from professionals who profit. Let me show you how to do it right.

The Bankroll Foundation

First things first: what's a bankroll? It's the total amount of money you've set aside specifically for betting. Not your rent money. Not your savings. Money you can afford to lose completely without it affecting your life.

I can't stress this enough. If you're betting with money you need for bills, you've already lost. The pressure makes you chase losses, bet scared, and make terrible decisions. Set aside a dedicated amount and treat it as your betting investment fund.

Understanding Units

A "unit" is your standard bet size, expressed as a percentage of your bankroll. This is betting's universal language. When someone says they're "up 15 units this month," they're measuring profit relative to their standard bet size, not dollar amounts.

Why units instead of dollars? Because $100 means something completely different to someone with a $500 bankroll versus someone with a $50,000 bankroll. Units normalize everything and let you track performance accurately.

Standard Unit Sizing

I recommend starting at 1-2% per unit. Yes, it feels small. Yes, winning $20 instead of $200 is less exciting. But you know what's really exciting? Still having a bankroll in three months when most recreational bettors have gone bust.

The Mathematics of Survival

Let me hit you with some math that will change how you think about betting forever.

Even the best MLB bettors in the world hit around 55-58% of their bets against the spread. That means they lose 42-45% of the time. At those win rates, losing streaks are inevitable. Not possible - inevitable.

Now imagine you're betting 10% of your bankroll per bet. After an 8-bet losing streak - which WILL happen eventually - you've lost 80% of your bankroll. Game over. You'd need to win 400% just to get back to even.

But at 2% per bet? That same streak costs you 16% of your bankroll. Painful, but recoverable. You're still in the game.

The Kelly Criterion (Simplified)

The Kelly Criterion is a mathematical formula that tells you the optimal bet size based on your edge and the odds. It's used by professional bettors, hedge funds, and poker players worldwide.

Kelly Example

Say you've identified a bet at -110 odds (decimal: 1.91) where you estimate a 55% chance of winning:

• b = 1.91 - 1 = 0.91
• p = 0.55 (your estimated win probability)
• q = 0.45 (lose probability)
• Kelly % = (0.91 × 0.55 - 0.45) / 0.91 = 5.5%

Full Kelly says bet 5.5% of your bankroll on this play. But here's the thing - most smart bettors use fractional Kelly, usually 25-50% of the calculated amount. Why? Because overestimating your edge is easy, and Kelly assumes perfect edge estimation.

Flat Betting vs. Variable Sizing

There are two main approaches to bet sizing:

Flat Betting (Recommended for Beginners)

Every bet is the same size. Period. No exceptions. If your unit is $20, you bet $20 on everything regardless of how confident you feel. This removes emotion from sizing decisions and prevents the classic mistake of betting big on "locks" that lose.

Pros: Simple, eliminates emotional betting, easy to track

Cons: Doesn't maximize value on strongest plays

Variable Sizing

You adjust bet size based on perceived edge. A 1-unit play is your standard bet, a 2-unit play is higher confidence, and a 3-unit play is reserved for your absolute best opportunities.

Pros: Maximizes value when you have real edge

Cons: Easy to abuse, requires honest self-assessment

My recommendation? Start flat betting for at least 3-6 months. Get a real sample size. Prove you can actually beat the market. Then - and only then - consider variable sizing based on demonstrated edge in specific situations.

The Mistakes That Kill Bankrolls

I've seen these destroy more bettors than bad handicapping ever could:

1. Chasing Losses

You're down $200 for the day, so you double your next bet to "get it back." This is how $200 losses become $600 losses. Every bet stands alone. Yesterday's results don't affect today's optimal bet size.

2. The "Lock" Mentality

There's no such thing as a lock. Every single bet has a chance to lose. The moment you bet 5x your normal unit because something is "guaranteed," you're setting yourself up for catastrophic loss.

3. Emotional Tilt

Bad beat? Refs screwed you? That's not a reason to fire off three more bets to make yourself feel better. If you're emotional, walk away. Seriously. Close the app. The games will still be there tomorrow.

4. Playing Too Many Games

MLB has 15 games most days. You don't need to bet all of them. Selectivity is an edge. The best bettors often play 1-3 games daily. More bets doesn't mean more profit - it often means more opportunities to give back your edge to the house.

Setting Up Your System

Here's a practical framework you can implement today:

1. Define your bankroll: Dedicated betting funds only. Write down the number.
2. Calculate your unit: Bankroll ÷ 100 = conservative unit size
3. Track everything: Spreadsheet or app, record every bet with stake, odds, result
4. Set daily/weekly limits: Maximum units risked per day (recommend 3-5 units)
5. Review weekly: Win rate, ROI, biggest winners/losers
6. Adjust quarterly: If bankroll grows 50%+, recalculate unit size

Sample Bankroll Rules

The Long Game Mindset

Here's the final piece: MLB betting is a marathon, not a sprint. The season is 162 games per team. Six months of action. Thousands of betting opportunities.

You don't need to win today. You don't need to win this week. You need to survive long enough for your edge to manifest across hundreds of bets. That's where the math kicks in. That's where profitable betting actually lives.

The bettors who go broke are the ones trying to get rich this weekend. The bettors who build real bankrolls are the ones thinking about where they'll be in September.

Last Updated: January 14, 2026