Betting Education & Strategy
Forget the fluff. This is a practical guide to MLB betting written by people who actually do this for a living. We'll cover every bet type, show you what sharp bettors look for, and explain why most people lose money on baseball.
Baseball isn't football. It's not basketball. The strategies that work in other sports will destroy your bankroll in baseball. Here's why:
The Favorite Problem: In the NFL, favorites win about 66% of games. In MLB? It's closer to 55-56%. Baseball has way more parity. The worst team in baseball wins 40% of their games. The best team loses 40% of theirs. This means heavy favorites are often overpriced.
The Starting Pitcher is Everything: One guy—the starting pitcher—controls 60-70% of the game's outcome. If your ace is dealing, you're probably winning. If he gets lit up in the 2nd inning, your offense needs to score 8+ runs to bail you out. No other sport has this dynamic.
Weather Matters More: A 15 mph wind at Wrigley Field can turn warning track fly balls into home runs. Temperature affects how far the ball carries. Rain delays impact bullpen availability. Football and basketball are played indoors or in controlled conditions. Baseball is chaos.
162 Games Create Value: The sheer volume of games means bookmakers can't price every game perfectly. There are inefficiencies to exploit if you know where to look. During football season, every line gets scrutinized by thousands of sharp bettors. In baseball? You can find soft lines all day.
The simplest bet: pick who wins the game. No point spreads, just winner takes all.
Negative numbers (-140): The favorite. Shows how much you need to bet to win $100. Yankees at -140 means risk $140 to win $100.
Positive numbers (+120): The underdog. Shows how much you win if you bet $100. Red Sox at +120 means bet $100 to win $120.
The run line is almost always 1.5 runs. Favorites must win by 2+, underdogs must win or lose by 1.
Favorite RL (+money): If you like a heavy moneyline favorite (-180 or higher), taking them -1.5 at + odds gives better payout. Risk: one-run games are common in baseball.
Dog RL (-money): The opposite play. Instead of betting a big underdog on the moneyline, take them +1.5 at worse odds but higher win probability. You win if they keep it close OR win outright.
About 28% of MLB games are decided by exactly 1 run. This is why run lines are tricky—one fluky play can swing the result.
Bet whether total runs scored by both teams goes over or under the posted number.
Bet on the outcome or total for just the first 5 innings. Bullpens don't matter.
Isolates Starting Pitching: If you love a starting pitcher matchup but don't trust the bullpen, F5 removes the bullpen variable.
Reduces Variance: Bullpens are volatile. One bad reliever can blow a game. F5 betting keeps it simple—starter vs starter.
Better Odds on Favorites: F5 lines are often softer than full-game lines because sharps focus on full games.
Bet on how many runs one specific team will score, ignoring the opponent.
Matchup Advantage: Elite offense vs. terrible pitcher? Bet their team total over instead of the full game over.
Weather Impact: If wind is blowing straight out to the home team's pull side, their team total over might have value.
Bullpen Mismatch: One team's bullpen is gassed, the other's is fresh. Target the team facing the tired bullpen.
Bet on games already in progress. Odds update in real-time based on score, count, and situation.
Different sportsbooks offer different odds. Yankees might be -135 at FanDuel and -142 at DraftKings. Always take -135.
Impact: Getting -135 instead of -142 improves break-even from 58.7% to 57.4%—that's HUGE over 100+ bets.
When a line moves opposite to public betting percentages, it indicates sharp money.
Example: 70% of bets on Yankees but line moves from -140 to -135. Sharps are betting Red Sox. Follow the smart money.
Track wind speed/direction, temperature, and humidity. Books often don't adjust totals fast enough for weather changes.
Edge: Wind blowing out 15+ mph at Wrigley? Over is usually +EV even if the line moved slightly.
Monitor Statcast data for pitcher velocity trends. A 2+ mph drop over 3 starts = injury or fatigue.
Profit Angle: Bet against pitchers showing velocity decline before the market catches on.
Bet against heavy public sides (75%+ of tickets). Public usually overvalues favorites and overs.
Reality: In baseball, contrarian underdogs are profitable long-term. Fade the public.
Bet both sides at different books when pricing inefficiencies create guaranteed profit.
Example: Yankees -135 at Book A, Red Sox +145 at Book B. Bet both, lock in profit regardless of outcome.
| Odds | Break-Even Win % | $100 Bet Wins |
|---|---|---|
| -110 | 52.4% | $90.91 |
| -120 | 54.5% | $83.33 |
| -130 | 56.5% | $76.92 |
| -140 | 58.3% | $71.43 |
| -150 | 60.0% | $66.67 |
| -160 | 61.5% | $62.50 |
| -180 | 64.3% | $55.56 |
| -200 | 66.7% | $50.00 |
| +100 | 50.0% | $100.00 |
| +120 | 45.5% | $120.00 |
| +140 | 41.7% | $140.00 |
| +160 | 38.5% | $160.00 |
| +180 | 35.7% | $180.00 |
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