Contract Analysis

Bregman Deal Breakdown: The $70M Deferral Play

January 13, 2026

The Cubs' 5-year, $175M Bregman contract has a hidden edge: $70 million in deferrals. That drops the present-day value to roughly $30-31M AAV and keeps Chicago under the $244M CBT threshold for 2026. The ripple effect? Nico Hoerner (FA after 2026) is now trade bait with Bregman at third and Shaw as insurance. The Tigers offered 6/$171.5M with an opt-out - Bregman chose more guaranteed money over flexibility. Cubs NL Central odds should tighten from +280 to +220.

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