FINDING VALUE IN 2026 FUTURES
The 2025-26 offseason has reshuffled the deck dramatically. Juan Soto's $765 million deal with the Mets, Corbin Burnes landing in Baltimore, and numerous second-tier moves have created significant market movement in futures odds. The question for sharp bettors: where has the market overreacted, and where is legitimate value hiding?
We've analyzed projected win totals, championship probabilities, and current market odds to identify the best value plays across World Series futures, division winners, and individual awards. Let's break it down.
WORLD SERIES FUTURES
The Dodgers and Mets are dominating the market following their respective offseason splashes, but the real value lies in the second tier of contenders. Here's our current odds assessment:
2026 World Series Odds - Top Contenders
| Team | Current Odds | Our Assessment |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | +400 | Fair value |
| New York Mets | +550 | Slight value |
| Baltimore Orioles | +800 | BEST VALUE |
| Philadelphia Phillies | +900 | Fair value |
| Houston Astros | +1200 | STRONG VALUE |
| Cleveland Guardians | +1400 | Fair value |
| San Diego Padres | +1600 | Overpriced |
| Atlanta Braves | +1800 | VALUE |
TOP WORLD SERIES BET: BALTIMORE ORIOLES +800
The Burnes acquisition fills their only hole. Gunnar Henderson is an MVP candidate entering his prime. The farm system continues producing. This is a legitimate 95+ win team priced like a longshot. Our models give them a 9.5% championship probability, making +800 a clear value play.
SLEEPER PICK: ATLANTA BRAVES +1800
Everyone's forgotten about the Braves. They still have elite starting pitching, a proven playoff core, and Spencer Strider returning from injury. At 18-1, you're getting tremendous value on a team that's won 100+ games three times in the last four years.
DIVISION FUTURES
AL EAST - THE TOUGHEST DIVISION
The market has Baltimore and New York locked in a two-horse race, which feels about right. The value play here is avoiding this division entirely - the variance is too high and the prices don't compensate for the risk.
PASS ON AL EAST DIVISION FUTURES
With Baltimore at -130 and the Yankees at +200, neither price offers sufficient value given the uncertainty. Both teams could win 95+ games and only one gets the division title. Too much risk for the reward.
NL EAST - METS OR BUST?
The Soto signing has made the Mets -150 favorites, but don't sleep on Philadelphia. The Phillies have a deeper rotation, proven playoff experience, and a chip on their shoulder after watching their rival land the biggest prize.
NL EAST VALUE: PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES +280
The Phillies are getting disrespected. They won 95 games last year, have one of baseball's best rotations, and return essentially the same core. Soto makes the Mets better, but +280 on Philly is excellent value.
NL WEST - DODGERS AT A PRICE
Los Angeles is -200 to win the division. That's steep, but it's the Dodgers - they've won this division 10 of the last 11 years. The only way to play this is to accept the chalk or look for hedging opportunities with the Padres.
MVP FUTURES
Award futures are where patient bettors find their biggest edges. The market overreacts to recent performance and name recognition, creating opportunities on rising stars and undervalued veterans.
AL MVP VALUE: JULIO RODRIGUEZ +2500
J-Rod's 2025 was a disappointment, but the talent is undeniable. At 25-1, you're betting on a bounce-back season from a 24-year-old with 40/40 upside. If Seattle contends (our models project 88 wins), Rodriguez will get MVP attention.
CY YOUNG FUTURES
Pitching is volatile, making Cy Young futures inherently riskier than MVP bets. That said, there's value in targeting workhorses on contending teams.
AL Cy Young - Notable Odds
| Pitcher | Team | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Corbin Burnes | Baltimore Orioles | +550 |
| Tarik Skubal | Detroit Tigers | +700 |
| Logan Gilbert | Seattle Mariners | +1400 |
| Cole Ragans | Kansas City Royals | +2000 |
CY YOUNG STRATEGY
Target pitchers on playoff-bound teams who project for 200+ innings. Voters love workhorses on winners. Burnes at +550 is fair, but Logan Gilbert at +1400 offers better risk/reward if the Mariners contend as expected.
WIN TOTAL PLAYS
Season win totals often provide the clearest edge. Sportsbooks set these numbers in late December/early January, before spring training reveals crucial information. Here are our strongest positions:
OVER: BALTIMORE ORIOLES 92.5 WINS
The Burnes addition is worth 3-4 wins on its own. Henderson's continued development, a deep lineup, and an excellent farm system all point to 95+ wins. This is our strongest over of the offseason.
UNDER: SAN DIEGO PADRES 88.5 WINS
The Padres are good but not 89-win good. Their rotation has questions beyond Darvish, the bullpen is thin, and the Dodgers/Diamondbacks will feast on NL West matchups. We project 85-86 wins.
OVER: DETROIT TIGERS 80.5 WINS
The Tigers are ready to take the next step. Skubal is a Cy Young candidate, their young position players are maturing, and 81 wins is achievable in the weakest division in baseball. Buy low on Detroit.
BANKROLL ALLOCATION
Futures betting requires patience and proper bankroll management. Here's our recommended allocation for a $1,000 futures bankroll:
RECOMMENDED 2026 FUTURES PORTFOLIO
$200 - Baltimore Orioles World Series +800
$150 - Atlanta Braves World Series +1800
$100 - Philadelphia Phillies NL East +280
$100 - Baltimore Orioles Over 92.5 Wins
$100 - Julio Rodriguez AL MVP +2500
$100 - Detroit Tigers Over 80.5 Wins
$100 - San Diego Padres Under 88.5 Wins
$150 - Reserve for spring training adjustments
All odds current as of January 4, 2026. Lines may have moved since publication. Shop multiple sportsbooks for the best numbers. Gamble responsibly.
LOOKING AHEAD
We'll update this guide throughout spring training as rosters finalize and the market adjusts. Key dates to watch:
February 15: Pitchers and catchers report. Watch for injury news.
March 1: Full squad workouts begin. Lineup hints emerge.
March 15: Spring games in full swing. Evaluate form.
March 25: Final roster cuts. Last chance for spring training value.
Subscribe to our newsletter for real-time updates when significant line movement occurs or new value opportunities emerge.