AI HANDICAPPING SHOWDOWN
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Breaking News - January 2026
Mets Futures After Bichette Signing: What AI Models See
Bo Bichette's 3-year, $126M contract completes a massive Mets makeover. AI projection models now rank New York third in baseball behind only the Dodgers and Yankees. With Peralta, Semien, and Robert Jr. also added, the Mets' 43.4 WAR projection edges the Phillies for second in the NL East. Current +1400 World Series odds represent potential value for a team with the second-highest payroll ($365M) in MLB. Full breakdown of contract structure, roster moves, and where futures value lives.
Full AI Analysis →Twins Stack Roster: Rogers ($2M) and Caratini ($14M) Add Value Depth
Minnesota just made two under-the-radar moves that matter for futures bettors. Taylor Rogers returns on a 1-year, $2M deal to shore up the bullpen, while Victor Caratini adds veteran catching depth on a 2-year, $14M contract. The Twins are building value depth at positions that matter in October. For AI win total models, these additions project to add approximately 1.5 wins to Minnesota's baseline. Their current 78.5 win total line looks increasingly beatable from the over side. Meanwhile, Max Scherzer says he's in no rush to sign, potentially waiting past Opening Day. If you're targeting late-market rotation value, keep watching the Scherzer market.
Futures Analysis →White Sox Rebuild: Dominguez Gets $20M After Disaster Season
Chicago just committed 2 years and $20M with a mutual option to reliever Seranthony Dominguez. For the White Sox, this is a clear flip-and-build play. The former Phillies closer struggled with injuries but has elite stuff when healthy. If he bounces back, they'll flip him at the deadline for prospects. If not, the mutual option keeps risk manageable. For futures bettors: White Sox remain a strong UNDER on their 55.5 win total. This move doesn't change that calculus. In fact, teams stacking relievers with trade value signals continued tanking.
Futures Impact →Bregman Deal Breakdown: The $70M Deferral Play
The Cubs' 5-year, $175M Bregman contract has a hidden edge: $70 million in deferrals. That drops the present-day value to roughly $30-31M AAV and keeps Chicago under the $244M CBT threshold for 2026. The ripple effect? Nico Hoerner (FA after 2026) is now trade bait with Bregman at third and Shaw as insurance. The Tigers offered 6/$171.5M with an opt-out - Bregman chose more guaranteed money over flexibility. Cubs NL Central odds should tighten from +280 to +220.
Contract Analysis →Gore Trade: Rangers Rotation Complete
The Rangers acquired All-Star lefty MacKenzie Gore from the Nationals for five prospects. Gore joins deGrom, Eovaldi, and Leiter to give Texas a playoff-caliber rotation. Our AI projects Rangers win total should jump from 84.5 to 88.5 wins. AL West futures now worth a serious look.
Trade Analysis →Cubs Acquire Edward Cabrera from Marlins
Chicago lands the hard-throwing right-hander for top prospect Owen Caissie and two other hitting prospects. Cabrera's elite splitter adds a weapon to a Cubs rotation seeking a playoff push.
Trade AnalysisTucker to Dodgers: Three-Peat Odds Crater
Kyle Tucker's 4-year, $240M deal with Los Angeles is a game-changer for futures bettors. The two-time defending champs just added a four-time All-Star with a career 140 OPS+. Tucker chose the Dodgers over a 10-year, $350M Blue Jays offer because winning matters. The $60M AAV is second-highest ever. Our AI models project Dodgers World Series odds should move from +600 to +450. If you haven't locked in pre-Tucker odds, you're already behind.
Futures Impact →Baltimore's Spending Spree Continues
After adding Pete Alonso ($155M), Ryan Helsley, Taylor Ward, and Shane Baz, the Orioles are now targeting pitching. Framber Valdez and Ranger Suarez both on their radar.
Team PreviewSchwarber Re-Signs with Phillies ($150M)
After a career year (56 HR, 132 RBI, .928 OPS), Kyle Schwarber stays in Philadelphia on a 5-year, $150M deal. Orioles had matched the offer but Schwarber chose to chase a ring in Philly.
Contract DetailsToronto Adds Okamoto and Cease
The Blue Jays signed Dylan Cease ($210M/7yr) and Japanese 3B Kazuma Okamoto ($60M/4yr). With Tucker still in play, Toronto is positioning itself as an AL East contender.
Betting Impact2025-26 Offseason Signings Tracker
| Player | Team | Contract | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Bichette (3B) | New York Mets | 3 yr / $126M | Jan 2026 |
| Alex Bregman (3B) | Chicago Cubs | 5 yr / $175M | Jan 2026 |
| Pete Alonso (1B) | Baltimore Orioles | 5 yr / $155M | Dec 2025 |
| Dylan Cease (SP) | Toronto Blue Jays | 7 yr / $210M | Dec 2025 |
| Kyle Schwarber (DH/OF) | Philadelphia Phillies | 5 yr / $150M | Dec 2025 |
| Josh Naylor (1B) | Seattle Mariners | 5 yr / $92.5M | Dec 2025 |
| Kazuma Okamoto (3B) | Toronto Blue Jays | 4 yr / $60M | Dec 2025 |
| Munetaka Murakami (INF) | Chicago White Sox | 2 yr / $34M | Dec 2025 |
| Ryan Helsley (CL) | Baltimore Orioles | 2 yr / $28M | Dec 2025 |
Recent Signings: Tucker $240M/Dodgers | Bichette $126M/Mets | Bregman $175M/Cubs
Betting Resources
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