• Daily MLB Breakdown and Best Bets – September 17, 2025
Posted: September 17, 2025
September 17 MLB Picks

Cubs -164 (2 Units)
Chicago continues to push behind a strong stretch from Matthew Boyd. Boyd has been one of the Cubs’ more reliable arms this season. Pittsburgh has alternated between Johan Oviedo and rookie Paul Skenes in this slot, and the Pirates offense has been inconsistent either way. If Oviedo starts, Chicago has the clearer edge with bullpen depth. If Skenes goes, the matchup tightens, but Chicago remains the more complete team.

Pirates Team Total under 3.5 -135 (2 Units)
Chicago’s staff has suppressed runs well, and Pittsburgh has been prone to long droughts at the plate. Even if Skenes is on the other side, it doesn’t change the Pirates’ scoring outlook. The Cubs bullpen has been steady in September, which supports this team total under.

Rockies and Marlins over 10.5 -119 (2 Units)
Coors Field remains the highest run environment. Miami just put up six runs in Denver earlier this week in a 6–5 game, and Ryan Weathers has not shown strong road form. With Colorado’s unsettled pitching plus altitude, another high scoring game is likely.

Tigers Team Total under 4.5 -145 (2 Units)
Cleveland starts Gavin Williams. He is backed by a bullpen that has been among the league’s best since July. Detroit has been closer to average than potent on offense, so the under on this team total is attractive.

Tigers and Guardians under 8 -112 (2 Units)
With Williams facing Jack Flaherty, this sets up as a controlled scoring environment. Both starters can work into the middle innings, and Cleveland’s late relief is a strength. Comerica conditions rarely add offense, which supports the under.

Guardians +123
Cleveland is live as a dog with Williams on the mound and the bullpen in top form. Detroit has strikeout upside with Flaherty, but Cleveland’s combination of power arm and lockdown relief makes the plus price interesting.

Blue Jays First 5 -135
Kevin Gausman brings stable strikeout production into Tampa Bay. The Rays counter with rookie Ian Seymour. Toronto has gone six and two since Bo Bichette’s injury, showing resilience in the lineup. The first five bet removes late bullpen variance and isolates Gausman’s edge.

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